When Criminal Authority Fractures: Violence, Extortion, and the Consequences of Fragmentation in Ecuador's Drug Trade

Abstract

The paper studies the rapid fragmentation of organized crime in Ecuador after the assassination of a dominant criminal federation's leader in December 2020. A triple-difference design shows that drug-market shocks produced large increases in homicides in exposed cantons after fragmentation, while also increasing extortion and violence around schools. The findings identify criminal organizations' structure as a first-order determinant of violence.